The G20 Presidency will be held by India starting on December 1st, 2022. With the world grappling with the after-effects of the pandemic, the Russia-Ukraine geopolitical tension, and the threat of global food insecurity India’s inclusive government style offers the G20’s leadership, where multilateralism may flourish and where there is a significant contribution to improving and sustaining globalisation while changing the international negotiation processes.
The G20 initially gathered at the level of Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors to deliberate policies to foster global financial stability. In the backdrop of the 1997 international financial crisis, it was formed in 1999 as a new gathering of nations with systemic economic influence.The 2008 global financial and banking crisis then cast a shadow on further events, including the first G20 Summit. Currently, the organisation is working on a broad range of topics, from food security to financial stability, debt relief, and Sustainable Development Goals.
As India takes the reins from Indonesia, whose motto for the presidency was “Recover Together, Recover Stronger,” emphasising the need to forge solid alliances in order to have a robust and inclusive post-pandemic recovery process and improved global resilience, India will probably continue the general theme of Indonesia as long as the pandemic exists. Other agenda topics from this year, such as health, digital transformation, and energy transition, can also be anticipated to be retained by India.
The expanding net of Western economic sanctions has increased pressure on emerging countries at a time of increased inflation that extends beyond food and energy prices, ongoing COVID-19 pandemic-related disruptions, and concerns about a worldwide recession. The G20 summit this year has a big job. Their policy formulations and decisions will be of increased significance as the countries that are a part of the summit account for more than 80 percent of the global gross domestic product (GDP), 75 percent of international trade, and 60 percent of the world’s population. Hence India’s leadership at the summit will be a challenging and exciting policy endeavour.
Post-Pandemic Economic Recovery
Inclusive and equitable post-pandemic recovery is at the top of India’s priority list. The G20 established the Debt Service Suspension Initiative (DSSI) in 2020 with the goal of “supporting low-income nations with unsustainable debt in a structural manner.”A year later, a Common Framework for Debt Treatments was developed to address insolvency and continued liquidity challenges. This was then extended. The Common Framework, despite its name, is really built to work case-by-case.
Countries that requested and filed for debt relief experienced delays and policy limitations. India would be negligent if it neglected to address the risks of societal instability in nations with a severe debt crisis as it is Sri Lanka’s nearest neighbour. The possibility of a post-pandemic economic collapse is rising, hence the debt issue needs to be prioritised more on the G20’s political agenda. Additionally, its long-standing objectives of improving the governance and quota structure of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) gain more significance.
By 2023, India, having a young and expanding population, will overtake China as the world’s most populous nation. Despite the fact that this large and young labour force provides a clear competitive advantage, the lack of jobs in the economy makes it a burden for the time being. The job situation is unlikely to improve in the foreseeable future unless significant reforms are implemented, given the mechanisation of previously labour-intensive industries and the overall worldwide downturn. “Decent work” (target number 8 in the Sustainable Development Goals) is seen primarily as a problem to be tackled at the national level. India would thus set the agenda for its presidency to revolve around a fair and inclusive post-pandemic recovery and multilateral cooperation that focuses on building a robust fiscal and monetary support system.
Climate Financing
The World Leaders Summit at COP26 in Glasgow saw the announcement of a 2070 net zero aim by Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. After China, the US, and the EU, India is the fourth-largest carbon dioxide emitter in the world. However, because of its large population, it has far lower emissions per person than other developed economies. In comparison to the US’s 15.5 tonnes and Russia’s 12.5 tonnes, India released 1.9 tonnes of CO2 per person in 2019.
One of the nation’s five promises includes the pledge that India will obtain 50 percent of its energy from renewable sources by 2030 and reduce predicted global carbon emissions by one billion tonnes by that same year. According to modelling and studies commissioned by the High-Level Policy Commission on Getting Asia to Net Zero, achieving net zero emissions by 2070 could increase India’s GDP by up to 4.7percent above the predicted baseline growth in GDP terms by 2036, amounting to a total of US$ 371 billion. The commission was established in May and is composed of four people: Vivek Pathak, worldwide head and director of Climate Business at the International Finance Corporation, Arvind Panagariya, former vice chairman of Niti Aayog, and former Australian prime minister Kevin Rudd.
However to stand true to the aforementioned pledge and gain the fiscal advantages of achieving net zero by 2070 India would need to overcome a number of obstacles, the most important of which is money: according to the modelling, India will need over US$ 10.1 trillion in total investments throughout the whole economy in order to accomplish its 2070 target. Utilizing international assistance would free up domestic funding for development, poverty reduction, and management of social impacts, helping to lessen the negative effects on households from higher prices. India could decarbonize using carbon revenues or other domestic tax-raising mechanisms to fund green investments. The release of the report coincides with a crucial period for Asian and Indian leadership in particular, as India will hold the G20 presidency in 2023 and the Asia Pacific Group will host COP28. This provides an opportunity for the country to make clear how sensitive it is to climate mitigation. In addition, the platform provides India to speak for all its fellow developing countries as well as developed countries and demand accountability from the industrialised countries for their disregard for climate financing and the unfair pressure they have been building on developing nations to take action on climate change in the absence of real advancement in climate finance.
India would also reassert its suggestion of establishing a “clean energy projects fund” that would allocate one percentof the GDP of rich nations to financing green initiatives in underdeveloped nations. Lastly, In order to promote the production and use of green hydrogen, the country may also ask the G20 nations to establish an organisation with international standards.
Public Health Infrastructure and Food Security
Earlier this year at the G7 summit Prime Minister Narendra Modi applauded India’s expertise in agriculture and suggested that this could be used to maintain food security. India continues to provide Myanmar with humanitarian aid, including a donation of 10,000 tonnes of rice and wheat. India is still steadfastly devoted to the cause of world food security and in response to numerous humanitarian crises over the years, it has made contributions to the UN’s Central Emergency Response Fund (CERF) and the UNOCHA. Further, speaking at a session on “Strengthening global collaboration for fighting food insecurity” outside of the third G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors meeting in Bali, Indonesia Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman requested permission from the World Trade Organization (WTO) to export foodgrains from its public stockholding to countries that are experiencing a food crisis. The aforementioned examples highlight India’s position as an emerging powerhouse in food manufacturing and export. Its G20 presidency should bolster its position and open new avenues for trade with countries stricken by the Russia-Ukraine war disruption of supply chains and climate-induced food scarcity.
One of the 17 UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and a basic human right is “good health and well-being.” While India’s position on the worldwide Healthcare Access and Quality (HAQ) Index improved from 153 in 1990 to 145 in 2016, according to a report by The Lancet, the nation’s score of 41.2 points is still below the average for the world and worse than some of the world’s poorest regions. India is ranked 10th in the new Personalised Health Index out of 11 countries in the Asia-Pacific. The Pandemic has brought forth an urgent need for collaboration on the public health infrastructure front necessitating the need for a worldwide fund for medical supplies in case of emergency should be established, the ability to produce vaccinations in underdeveloped nations and the development of international health procedures and standards. To prepare for upcoming dangers and pandemics, the G20 and advanced economies must collaborate to build a more responsive and robust global health architecture.
The G20 Indian Presidency would be one of the most significant milestone moments of Indian democracy. It is commonly held that, in times of multilateralism crises, India has the duty for restoring stability to a profoundly divided multipolar world and for forging bigger global answers to the difficulties.The theme of the Indian Presidency would be announced in November 2022. The agenda for the Indian Presidency can be drawn from the communique of the Riyadh, Rome and forthcoming Jakarta summits. The G20’s position as a forum connecting the world’s leading established and emerging nations gains increased significance in influencing global trends as the global economy faces uncertainty and instability. The upcoming G20 Presidency is a significant chance for India to highlight issues of vital global concern, advance its development narratives, and use its strengths as the fastest-growing major economy to further the G20 agenda.
AUTHOR: Stuti Sharma and Aarthy Madan
